Chasing K1 Weekly · No. 1
Chasing K1 Weekly, No. 1: The Break, the Table, and a 22 Percent Chance
The first weekly letter on the promotion race: where Seoul stand going into the international break, what Suwon Samsung, Suwon FC, Daegu and Hwaseong play next, and how each week moves the chance of finishing second.
This is the first of a weekly letter that will run to the end of the season. Each edition does the same four things: gives the one number that matters (Seoul’s chance of an automatic promotion place), shows how it has moved since the last edition, walks through what Suwon Samsung, Suwon FC, Daegu and Hwaseong play in the coming round and what the model expects of them, and then looks one week further ahead. The Chasing K1 page on the Articles tab stays as the running summary; this is the diary.
The number this week
22 percent. That is the model’s chance, after 20,000 simulated finishes from the Round 27 table, that Seoul E-Land finish first or second and go up without a playoff. Suwon FC are at 77 percent, Daegu at 5, Hwaseong at effectively zero. Suwon Samsung win the league in 79 percent of runs.
| Edition | Table through | Seoul top two | Suwon FC top two | Daegu top two | Seoul projected | Suwon FC projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, after the Suwon preview | Round 25 | 37% | 70% | 7% | 60.1 | 62.1 |
| Sep 18, after the Suwon defeat | Round 26 | 21% | 57% | 24% | 58.3 | 60.7 |
| Sep 21, this edition | Round 27 | 22% | 77% | 6% | 59.8 | 62.8 |
Two weeks, three readings, and a story in the columns. The Suwon Samsung defeat took 16 points off Seoul’s chance and handed most of them to Daegu. Beating Daegu took them back off Daegu and handed almost all of them to Suwon FC, because Suwon FC won 3-0 at Jeonnam the same afternoon without Frizzo. Seoul’s own number ended the fortnight one point higher than it started the second week and 15 lower than it started the first. The race for second is now Suwon FC’s to lose.
Where everyone stands going into the break
| # | Club | P | Pts | GF | Left | Home | Away | Model final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Samsung | 25 | 53 | 39 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 67 |
| 2 | Suwon FC | 25 | 48 | 50 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 63 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land | 26 | 48 | 45 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 60 |
| 4 | Daegu | 26 | 46 | 48 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 57 |
| 5 | Hwaseong | 26 | 44 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 52 |
Suwon FC and Suwon Samsung have no bye left and play every remaining round. Seoul sit out Round 30, Daegu Round 28, Hwaseong Round 33. The first tiebreaker is goals scored, and Suwon FC lead Seoul by five on it.
What Seoul’s next match does to the number
Round 28 is Gimpo away on Friday October 9 at 16:30. The model gives Seoul 48 percent to win, 29 to draw, 23 to lose.
| Result at Gimpo | Chance | Seoul top two | Suwon FC top two | Daegu top two |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul win | 48% | 32% | 69% | 4% |
| Draw | 29% | 15% | 82% | 6% |
| Seoul lose | 23% | 11% | 85% | 7% |
A win is worth about ten points of probability. A defeat halves the number. Suwon FC play Hwaseong at 14:00 the same day, so Seoul will kick off knowing whether the favorite has slipped.
The rivals’ week: Round 28, October 9 to 11
| Club | Fixture | Kickoff | Win | Draw | Loss | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon Samsung | Ansan (H) | Sun Oct 11, 14:00 | 81% | 14% | 5% | 2.57 |
| Suwon FC | Hwaseong (H) | Fri Oct 9, 14:00 | 52% | 28% | 20% | 1.84 |
| Daegu | bye | |||||
| Hwaseong | Suwon FC (A) | Fri Oct 9, 14:00 | 20% | 28% | 52% | 0.88 |
| Seoul E-Land | Gimpo (A) | Fri Oct 9, 16:30 | 48% | 29% | 23% | 1.72 |
The match to watch is Suwon FC against Hwaseong. It is Suwon FC’s only remaining fixture against a top-six side, it is played on a public holiday afternoon, and it is the one match in their run-in the model rates below 55 percent. Hwaseong are on their third of nine straight away matches, have not lost in three, and defend well anywhere; their manager Cha Du-ri has built a side that draws. Frizzo, Suwon FC’s 13-goal top scorer, is on roughly a one-month recovery from the concussion he suffered on September 5, which puts October 9 at the edge of his return; his availability is the single biggest variable in the round. Suwon FC dropping points here is the scenario in which Seoul’s number goes above 30 percent for the first time since the Suwon Samsung match, provided Seoul win at Gimpo.
Suwon Samsung against Ansan is a formality on paper, 81 percent, against the second-worst side in the division. It matters for the title, not for second.
Daegu sit out the round and will not play again until October 17. Choi Sung-yong has three weeks to prepare the back four he promised and to get Edgar, Ko Jae-hyun and Park Se-jin back into the squad.
One week further: Round 29, October 17 and 18
| Club | Fixture | Kickoff | Win | Draw | Loss | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon Samsung | Hwaseong (H) | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | 52% | 30% | 18% | 1.86 |
| Suwon FC | Seongnam (A) | Sat Oct 17, 14:00 | 52% | 28% | 20% | 1.85 |
| Daegu | Chungbuk Cheongju (H) | Sat Oct 17 | 64% | 21% | 14% | 2.14 |
| Hwaseong | Suwon Samsung (A) | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | 17% | 30% | 52% | 0.82 |
| Seoul E-Land | Gimhae (H) | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | 83% | 13% | 4% | 2.63 |
This is the round the model likes most for Seoul. Gimhae have never won a home league match and have conceded 49; Seoul at home to them is the highest single-match probability left in the season. Meanwhile Suwon FC travel to Seongnam, a draw-heavy mid-table side that beat Gimpo away this month and held Hwaseong to 2-2, and the model has that as another sub-55 match. Two rounds in a row where Suwon FC are rated close to a coin flip and Seoul are favored: if the gap between the two clubs is going to close, it closes in October.
The rest of the calendar for the four rivals
| Round | Weekend | Suwon Samsung | Suwon FC | Daegu | Hwaseong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Oct 24-25 | Seongnam (A) 51% | Chungnam Asan (H) 63% | Jeonnam (A) 49% | Paju (A) 40% |
| 31 | Oct 31-Nov 1 | Daegu (A) 42% | Ansan (H) 83% | Suwon Samsung (H) 28% | Gyeongnam (A) 29% |
| 32 | Nov 7-8 | Yongin (H) 67% | Gyeongnam (H) 56% | Seongnam (A) 41% | Gimhae (A) 71% |
| 33 | Nov 21-22 | Gyeongnam (H) 53% | Gimpo (A) 55% | Gimhae (H) 80% | bye |
| 34 | Nov 28-29 | Jeonnam (A) 60% | Chungbuk Cheongju (H) 76% | Cheonan (A) 47% | Gimpo (A) 42% |
The figures are each club’s win probability. Seoul’s own path over the same stretch: bye, Yongin away 51 percent, Jeonnam home 71, Chungnam Asan home 56, Gyeongnam away 36.
Read down the Suwon FC column and the shape of the problem is clear. After Seongnam on October 17, their four remaining home matches are against clubs currently eighth, fifteenth, ninth and eleventh, and the model rates them at 63, 83, 56 and 76 percent. The only away match in that stretch is Gimpo, where Seoul themselves are favored. Suwon FC’s calendar is not soft; it is the softest in the top six by a distance, and the model’s 77 percent is mostly that calendar.
What Seoul need this week
Nothing. The break is three weeks, nobody in the top six plays, and the number will be 22 percent on October 8 as well. What Seoul can do in the meantime is what Kim Do-gyun said after the Daegu match: work on goals. The gap to Suwon FC on the tiebreaker is five, and every one of Seoul’s six remaining opponents is a side Seoul should be beating by more than one. A 3-0 at Gimpo is not greedy. It is the tiebreaker.
Next edition after Round 28.