Chasing K1 Weekly · No. 2
Chasing K1 Weekly, No. 2: Everyone Won, and an 18 Percent Chance
The second weekly letter on the promotion race: all three of the top three won Round 28, Suwon Samsung pulled five clear, and Seoul's chance of an automatic place fell to 18 percent. What Gimhae, and Suwon FC's trip to Seongnam, can do to it.
The second edition of the weekly letter. Same four things as last time: the one number that matters (Seoul’s chance of an automatic promotion place), how it has moved, what Suwon Samsung, Suwon FC, Daegu and Hwaseong play in the coming round and what the model expects of them, and one week further ahead. The Chasing K1 page stays as the running summary; this is the diary.
The number this week
18 percent. That is the model’s chance, after 20,000 simulated finishes from the complete Round 28 table, that Seoul E-Land finish first or second and go up without a playoff. Suwon FC are at 82 percent, Daegu at 2, Hwaseong at zero. Suwon Samsung win the league in 83 percent of runs.
| Edition | Table through | Seoul top two | Suwon FC top two | Daegu top two | Seoul projected | Suwon FC projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, after the Suwon preview | Round 25 | 37% | 70% | 7% | 60.1 | 62.1 |
| Sep 18, after the Suwon defeat | Round 26 | 21% | 57% | 24% | 58.3 | 60.7 |
| Sep 21, Weekly No. 1 | Round 27 | 22% | 77% | 6% | 59.8 | 62.8 |
| Oct 9, the Gimpo digest | Round 28, Friday | 22% | 82% | 3% | 60.9 | 64.0 |
| Oct 11, this edition | Round 28 | 18% | 82% | 2% | 61.0 | 64.1 |
Seoul won, Suwon FC won, Suwon Samsung won by three, and the number went down. That is what a race looks like when you are third and everyone above you keeps winning: Seoul’s projected total has gone up by more than a point since No. 1, and their chance has gone down by four. Two things moved it this weekend, in roughly equal parts. One is Sunday: Suwon Samsung’s 4-1 win over Ansan, their fifth in a row, put them five clear with a game in hand. The other is the model’s inputs. This rerun replaces every club’s hand-entered recent form with its actual last five results from the official record; two of the old figures, Seoul’s and Daegu’s, did not match the results they were meant to summarize, and fixing them, along with refreshing the form of Seoul’s remaining opponents, accounts for the rest.
Where everyone stands after Round 28
| # | Club | P | Pts | GF | Left | Home | Away | Model final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Samsung | 26 | 56 | 43 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 69 |
| 2 | Suwon FC | 26 | 51 | 51 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 64 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land | 27 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 61 |
| 4 | Daegu | 26 | 46 | 48 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 56 |
| 5 | Hwaseong | 27 | 44 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 52 |
Suwon Samsung, Suwon FC and Daegu have used both byes and play every remaining round. Seoul sit out Round 30 and Hwaseong Round 33. The first tiebreaker is goals scored, and Suwon FC lead Seoul by five on it.
What Seoul’s next match does to the number
Round 29 is Gimhae at Mokdong on Sunday October 18 at 14:00. The model gives Seoul 82 percent to win, 14 to draw, 4 to lose, with 2-0 the likeliest score.
| Result against Gimhae | Chance | Seoul top two | Suwon FC top two | Daegu top two |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul win | 82% | 21% | 80% | 2% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 90% | 2% |
| Seoul lose | 4% | 6% | 93% | 3% |
A win holds the number roughly where it is; anything else halves it or worse. Suwon FC play the day before, so Seoul will kick off knowing whether the favorite has slipped.
The rivals’ week: Round 29, October 17 and 18
| Club | Fixture | Kickoff | Win | Draw | Loss | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon Samsung | Hwaseong (H) | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | 59% | 27% | 13% | 2.06 |
| Suwon FC | Seongnam (A) | Sat Oct 17, 14:00 | 53% | 28% | 19% | 1.87 |
| Daegu | Chungbuk Cheongju (H) | Sat Oct 17, 14:00 | 61% | 22% | 17% | 2.05 |
| Hwaseong | Suwon Samsung (A) | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | 13% | 27% | 59% | 0.67 |
| Seoul E-Land | Gimhae (H) | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | 82% | 14% | 4% | 2.59 |
The match to watch is Seongnam against Suwon FC. It is Suwon FC’s last away match until late November and the one in their run-in the model rates closest to a coin flip, 53 percent. Seongnam are eleventh and lost 3-1 at Cheongju on Friday, but their last two home matches at Tancheon were a 1-1 draw with Seoul and a 2-2 draw with Hwaseong. If Suwon FC fail to win there, Seoul’s chance rises to 27 percent. If Suwon FC win, it falls to about 11.
Suwon Samsung against Hwaseong is the title fixture: the leaders on five straight wins against the fifth-placed side, who play every one of their remaining matches away from home. It decides how big Suwon Samsung’s cushion at the top is, not who finishes second.
Daegu come back from the bye against a Chungbuk Cheongju side that has won its last three. At five points behind Seoul and Suwon FC with six to play, Daegu need wins and help.
One week further: Round 30, October 24 and 25
| Club | Fixture | Kickoff | Win | Draw | Loss | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon Samsung | Seongnam (A) | Sun Oct 25, 14:00 | 60% | 27% | 13% | 2.08 |
| Suwon FC | Chungnam Asan (H) | Sun Oct 25, 14:00 | 64% | 24% | 12% | 2.16 |
| Daegu | Jeonnam (A) | Sat Oct 24, 14:00 | 47% | 26% | 27% | 1.67 |
| Hwaseong | Paju (A) | Sun Oct 25, 16:30 | 39% | 34% | 27% | 1.52 |
| Seoul E-Land | bye |
Seoul’s bye. Whatever happens that weekend can only hold Seoul’s number or lower it, and the fixture that matters is Suwon FC at home to Chungnam Asan, rated 64 percent for the favorite.
The rest of the calendar for the four rivals
| Round | Weekend | Suwon Samsung | Suwon FC | Daegu | Hwaseong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Oct 31-Nov 1 | Daegu (A) 51% | Ansan (H) 84% | Suwon Samsung (H) 21% | Gyeongnam (A) 30% |
| 32 | Nov 7-8 | Yongin (H) 72% | Gyeongnam (H) 56% | Seongnam (A) 42% | Gimhae (A) 71% |
| 33 | Nov 21-22 | Gyeongnam (H) 60% | Gimpo (A) 62% | Gimhae (H) 81% | bye |
| 34 | Nov 29 | Jeonnam (A) 66% | Chungbuk Cheongju (H) 73% | Cheonan (A) 44% | Gimpo (A) 49% |
The figures are each club’s win probability. Seoul’s own path from here: Gimhae home 82 percent, bye, Yongin away 49, Jeonnam home 69, Chungnam Asan home 55, Gyeongnam away 36.
The Suwon FC column is the whole story. After Seongnam they have four home matches and one trip to Gimpo, and the model rates every one of them as more likely than not. Each of those six fixtures, won or not, moves Seoul’s chance by about 15 points. Seoul need two of them to go wrong for Suwon FC, or one to go badly wrong, and they need to win their own.
What Seoul need this week
A win against Gimhae, and goals. The arithmetic from here is simple to state. Five wins from five, 66 points, puts Seoul in the top two 75 percent of the time. Four wins and a draw, 64, is 43 percent. Anything below 63 is a long shot whatever Suwon FC do. And because a tie on points goes to goals scored, every goal Seoul score against the bottom half is worth something that a 1-0 is not. The model’s likeliest score against Gimhae is 2-0. Seoul need better than likely.
Next edition after Round 29.