Chasing K1
Chasing K1: The Promotion Race, Week by Week
Refreshed after every round. For Seoul E-Land themselves rather than the race around them, see the State of the Club report, and the Tracker grades our July and September predictions week by week. The model refresh after Round...
Refreshed after every round. For Seoul E-Land themselves rather than the race around them, see the State of the Club report, and the Tracker grades our July and September predictions week by week. The model refresh after Round 26 is in Outlook After Round 26; the numbers below are rerun after the complete Round 27. From this week there is also a weekly letter in this section that tracks the rivals’ fixtures round by round and how each week moves Seoul’s chance of second.
Where It Stands After Round 27
| # | Club | P | Pts | GF | Remaining | Home left | Away left | vs top six | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Samsung Bluewings | 25 | 53 | 39 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 67 |
| 2 | Suwon FC | 25 | 48 | 50 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 63 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land | 26 | 48 | 45 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 60 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 26 | 46 | 48 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 57 |
| 5 | Hwaseong FC | 26 | 44 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 52 |
| 6 | Busan IPark | 26 | 41 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50 |
Hwaseong drew 2-2 at Seongnam on Sunday, Ilyutchenko and Lee Rae-jun scoring, to stay fifth. Suwon Samsung had the bye. Suwon FC are above Seoul on goals scored, the first tiebreaker, by five.
Two clubs go up automatically. Suwon Samsung are 80 percent for the title and 96 percent for the top two. The second place is now a two-horse race between Suwon FC and Seoul: the model has Suwon FC at 76 percent for the top two and Seoul at 23, with Daegu’s chance falling from 23 to 6 percent in one evening at Mokdong.
What Changed in Round 27
Seoul did what they had to and it was not quite enough to move the projection, because Suwon FC did the same two and a half hours earlier.
- Seoul E-Land beat Daegu 2-1 in a 3-4-3 without the suspended Park Chang-hwan. Cho Jun-hyun scored his first goal of the season on 29, Deckers headed a Cesinha corner in on 42, and Park Jae-yong won it on 51 with a first-time strike into the top corner from Baek Ji-woong’s pass, his tenth goal of the season in his 100th K League appearance, confirmed after a handball review. Eleven minutes of stoppage time, a Deckers acrobatic goal ruled out for offside, and Kim Do-gyun’s 100th win as a manager celebrated before kickoff and earned again after it.
- Suwon FC won 3-0 at Jeonnam without Frizzo, with Kim Do-yoon, Choi Ki-yun and Gu Bon-cheol scoring. Thirteen unbeaten. That result moved them to 48 and, on goals scored, above Seoul before Seoul had kicked off.
- Daegu lost for the first time in seven and dropped to fourth. Choi Sung-yong said his side were “standing at the edge of a cliff” and would use the break to prepare a back four and bring Edgar, Ko Jae-hyun and Park Se-jin back.
- Busan lost 1-0 at Gimpo, Lee Si-heon’s 40th-minute goal ending Gimpo’s month without a win. Busan’s own revival lasted one match.
- Chungnam Asan beat Cheonan 3-1 and are eighth, six behind Busan with a game in hand.
Net effect: Seoul are second on points, third on the table, a point clear of Daegu with the run-in they wanted, and the model’s top-two number for them barely moved, from 21 to 23 percent, because the club above them on the tiebreak also won.
The Fixture Lists After the Break
The league pauses for three weeks. Seoul’s next match is at Gimpo on Friday October 9.
Suwon Samsung: Ansan (H, Oct 11), Hwaseong (H, Oct 18), Seongnam (A), Daegu (A, Oct 31), Yongin (H), Gyeongnam (H), Jeonnam (A). Two top-six opponents. The model has them dropping about seven points in seven.
Suwon FC: Hwaseong (H, Oct 9), Seongnam (A, Oct 17), Chungnam Asan (H, Oct 25), Ansan (H), Gyeongnam (H), Gimpo (A), Chungbuk Cheongju (H). Five of seven at home, where they are unbeaten, one top-six opponent, and Frizzo due back during October. The model gives them about 15 points from 21.
Seoul E-Land: Gimpo (A, Oct 9), Gimhae (H, Oct 18), bye, Yongin (A, Oct 31), Jeonnam (H, Nov 7), Chungnam Asan (H, Nov 22), Gyeongnam (A, Nov 29). No top-six opponent left. Three at home, three away, five of six against clubs currently eighth or lower. The model gives Seoul about 12 points from 18.
Daegu: bye, then Chungbuk Cheongju (H, Oct 17), Jeonnam (A), Suwon Samsung (H, Oct 31), Seongnam (A), Gimhae (H), Cheonan (A). Their one remaining chance to affect the top of the table is the leaders’ visit on October 31.
Hwaseong continue their nine-match road trip at Seongnam on Sunday, then Suwon FC, Suwon Samsung, Paju, Gyeongnam, Gimhae and Gimpo. Busan have Paju away first, then Jeonnam and Gyeongnam at home.
The Matches That Decide It
With Seoul’s head-to-heads finished, the race for second will be decided by what Suwon FC do against the bottom half. Three fixtures between top-six clubs remain:
| Round | Date | Fixture | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Fri Oct 9, 14:00 | Suwon FC v Hwaseong | Suwon FC’s only remaining top-six fixture; Frizzo doubtful; kicks off before Seoul at Gimpo |
| 29 | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | Suwon Samsung v Hwaseong | Title arithmetic |
| 31 | Sat Oct 31, 16:30 | Daegu v Suwon Samsung | Daegu’s last lever; Seoul at Yongin the same afternoon |
The model’s read on Seoul’s next match: Gimpo 48 percent Seoul, 29 draw, 23 Gimpo. A Seoul win there lifts the top-two chance to 33 percent; a defeat drops it to 10.
What Seoul Actually Need
Seoul are on 1.85 points per game. Sustaining that over six lands on 59, which is what the model projects, and which the model says is third more than half the time. The honest target has moved: at 62 points Seoul finish in the top two 39 percent of the time, at 63 it is a coin flip, at 64 it is 68 percent, at 66 (win out) it is 91. Sixty-three is 15 points from six matches, five wins from six.
The other half is Suwon FC. For 60 Seoul points to be enough, Suwon FC need to finish on 59 or fewer, which means dropping 10 of their remaining 21. The model gives that 15 percent, down from 35 a week ago, because they just won 3-0 away without their best player. Their next two, Hwaseong at home on October 9 and Seongnam away on October 17, are the two matches where a slip is most plausible. If they take six points from those, the model’s number for Seoul falls into single digits.
Kim Do-gyun’s own framing after Saturday: the head-to-heads are done, the remaining six are all against clubs below the race, and the danger now is dropping points to teams with nothing to play for. The model agrees with every word.
The Case For and Against Each Rival
Suwon Samsung Bluewings (53). Bye this week, five clear with a game in hand on Seoul, 20 conceded in 25. The case against remains the injury list, Ko Seung-beom and Bruno Silva out until October, Kim Jun-hong at the Asian Games, and the October 31 trip to Daegu.
Suwon FC (48, one game in hand on Seoul). Thirteen unbeaten, unbeaten at home, five of seven at home, a five-goal cushion on the tiebreak, and a 3-0 away win without Frizzo that answered the question of whether they could score without him. The case against is thinner than it was: the draw habit (nine in 25), the manager’s bench ban if it carries, five regulars on four yellows, and Hwaseong first up. They are now the favorite for second and it is not close.
Daegu FC (46). Choi Sung-yong’s honesty after the match was the story: too many turnovers, a back four to prepare, Edgar to reintegrate. They have the bye next, then a soft October before the leaders visit. The model has them fourth 54 percent of the time and in the top two 6 percent.
Hwaseong FC (43) and Busan (41). The playoff pair. Busan’s defeat at Gimpo after one win in ten leaves them 88 percent for the top six rather than the 97 of a week ago; Gimpo and Chungnam Asan are six back with games in hand. Hwaseong’s result on Sunday sets the fifth-place picture.