Chasing K1 Weekly, No. 3: Six Goals, a One-Goal Gap, and a 26 Percent Chance

The third edition of the weekly letter, and the first written in a bye week: Seoul have the bye in Round 30, and Yongin on October 31 is next. The Chasing K1 page stays as the running summary; this is the diary.

The number this week

26 percent. That is the model’s chance, after 20,000 simulated finishes from the complete Round 29 table, that Seoul E-Land finish first or second and go up without a playoff. Suwon FC are at 74 percent, Daegu at 2. Suwon Samsung win the league in 89 percent of runs and finish in the top two in 98.5 percent.

Edition	Table through	Seoul top two	Suwon FC top two	Daegu top two	Seoul projected	Suwon FC projected
Sep 7, after the Suwon preview	Round 25	37%	70%	7%	60.1	62.1
Sep 18, after the Suwon defeat	Round 26	21%	57%	24%	58.3	60.7
Sep 21, Weekly No. 1	Round 27	22%	77%	6%	59.8	62.8
Oct 9, the Gimpo digest	Round 28, Friday	22%	82%	3%	60.9	64.0
Oct 11, Weekly No. 2	Round 28	18%	82%	2%	61.0	64.1
Oct 18, this edition	Round 29	26%	74%	2%	62.6	64.7

The biggest rise since this table began, and it came on a weekend when Suwon FC won. A week ago the model said a Suwon FC win at Seongnam would drop Seoul to about 11 percent. Suwon FC did win, and Seoul’s chance went up by eight points anyway. The model does not split the change into parts, but three of its inputs moved Seoul’s way: the tiebreak, Seoul’s own form, and the form of the clubs left to play. Two of them run through one wet afternoon at Mokdong.

The weekend: Round 29, October 17 and 18

Seoul E-Land 6-2 Gimhae. Heavy rain, a waterlogged pitch, and a goal down after 20 minutes to the bottom club. Then Park Jae-yong (24), Alan Carius with the club’s 600th goal (28), Euller (52), Son Hyuk-chan with his first career goal (60), Euller again from a direct free kick (85) and Kim Hyun (90). Six equals the club’s single-match scoring record; it was a third straight win and Kim Do-gyun’s 50th win as Seoul E-Land manager. How the strikers and the two tall center-backs carried it is in Twenty-Two Goals Up Front, Twin Towers at the Back.

The goals changed the arithmetic. Suwon FC’s lead on goals scored, the first tiebreaker, went from 51-46 to 53-52, which Kim Do-gyun called a positive sign. A week ago, when the two finished level on points in the model, Seoul came out ahead less than 5 percent of the time; now it is 39 percent. A level finish is still unlikely (about 9 percent of runs), but it is no longer close to a certain loss.

Seongnam 1-2 Suwon FC. Han Chan-hee scored on 37, Yoo Ju-an equalized on 84, and Gu Bon-cheol won it in the 96th minute. Before the round, Suwon FC failing to win there was worth 27 percent to Seoul; the equalizer lasted twelve minutes. Fifteen unbeaten.

Suwon Samsung 3-2 Hwaseong. A sixth straight win, five points clear, and 89 percent for the title, up from 83.

Daegu 3-1 Chungbuk Cheongju. Back from the bye, still five behind second with five to play: 2 percent for the top two, 82 percent to finish fourth.

Elsewhere, Gimpo beat Paju 4-1 and Chungnam Asan drew 0-0 at Gyeongnam. Gimpo, seventh on 38, can now reach 53 at most, so Seoul are mathematically certain of a playoff place. The Long Way Up explains how this season’s playoffs work.

Where everyone stands after Round 29

#	Club	P	Pts	GF	Left	Home	Away	Top two
1	Suwon Samsung	27	59	46	5	2	3	98.5%
2	Suwon FC	27	54	53	5	4	1	74%
3	Seoul E-Land	28	54	52	4	2	2	26%
4	Daegu	27	49	51	5	2	3	2%
5	Busan	28	45	44	4	2	2	0%
6	Hwaseong	28	44	43	4	0	4	0%

Seoul sit out Round 30 and Hwaseong Round 33. Suwon FC lead Seoul by one on goals scored and by three on goal difference, the second tiebreaker.

The rivals’ week: Round 30, October 24 and 25

Club	Fixture	Kickoff
Daegu	Jeonnam (A)	Sat Oct 24, 14:00
Suwon FC	Chungnam Asan (H)	Sun Oct 25, 14:00
Suwon Samsung	Seongnam (A)	Sun Oct 25, 14:00
Hwaseong	Paju (A)	Sun Oct 25, 16:30
Seoul E-Land	bye

The match to watch is Suwon FC against Chungnam Asan. The model makes Suwon FC 63 percent to win. If they do, Seoul fall to 18 percent, back where they were a week ago; if they draw or lose, Seoul rise to 41. Suwon FC won the first meeting 3-1 away.

Suwon Samsung at Seongnam matters for the title, not for second: in the model, the leaders’ results move Seoul’s number by two or three points at most. Daegu are at Jeonnam on Saturday, and Hwaseong, 91 percent for the top six, at Paju on Sunday.

What each Suwon FC result does to Seoul

Round	Date	Suwon FC fixture	Suwon FC win	Seoul top two if Suwon FC win	If they don’t
30	Sun Oct 25, 14:00	Chungnam Asan (H)	63%	18%	41%
31	Sun Nov 1, 14:00	Ansan (H)	79%	21%	46%
32	Sat Nov 7, 14:00	Gyeongnam (H)	52%	17%	37%
33	Sat Nov 21, 16:30	Gimpo (A)	50%	16%	38%
34	Sun Nov 29	Chungbuk Cheongju (H)	72%	20%	43%

Each result moves Seoul’s number by 20 to 25 points. Ansan on November 1 is the biggest swing and the match Suwon FC are likeliest to win. Gimpo away on November 21 is the closest to a coin flip: after Gimpo’s 4-1, the model has Suwon FC at 50 percent there, down from 62 a week ago. In all it expects Suwon FC to take 10.7 of the 15 points on offer. For Seoul to finish above them on points with three wins and a draw (64), Suwon FC need to drop at least six: a 31 percent chance.

One other date to mark: Daegu host Suwon Samsung on Saturday October 31 at 16:30, the last meeting of top-six clubs this season.

Higher numbers you may have seen

A prediction circulating online puts Seoul above 50 percent for the top two and Suwon FC in the mid-40s. We could not find its source in Korean or English; the longer answer is on the Chasing K1 page. In short: Suwon FC are level on points with a game in hand and still lead on goals scored, and even four wins from four sends Seoul up only 70 percent of the time in our model. Ours is an estimate too, like any model’s, and not the only way to read the race.

What Seoul’s next match does to the number

Round 31 is Yongin away on Saturday October 31 at 14:00. The model gives Seoul 70 percent to win, 19 to draw and 11 to lose, with expected goals of 2.28 to 0.78, 2-0 the likeliest score and a clean sheet in 46 percent of runs. Yongin are 13th and lost 4-0 at home to Ansan on Saturday; the first meeting, at Mokdong in May, was a 2-2 draw. Seoul will be without Son Hyuk-chan, whose booking against Gimhae was his fifth of the season.

Result at Yongin	Seoul top two
Seoul win	33%
Draw	14%
Seoul lose	6%

A win takes the number to a third; a draw roughly halves it. Suwon FC play Ansan the next day, so this time Seoul go first. Seoul’s win chances have risen across the run-in since last week: Yongin from 49 percent to 70, Jeonnam at home from 69 to 80, Chungnam Asan at home from 55 to 63, Gyeongnam away from 36 to 41. Most of that is form: the model blends each club’s last five matches into its season rates, and Seoul’s last five now read 11 goals scored and 4 conceded, Yongin’s 3 and 10.

What Seoul need from here

Four matches; the possible totals run from 54 to 66, and the model projects 62.6. Seoul go up 24 percent of the time at 63 (three wins and a defeat), 38 percent at 64 (three wins and a draw) and 70 percent at 66, four from four, which happens in about 15 percent of runs. Kim Do-gyun put it more simply after Gimhae: Seoul have to win every remaining match, and that is where the hope is.

With the tiebreak gap at one, the goals count too: a 2-0 at Yongin, the model’s likeliest score, is worth more than a 1-0. The win first, then the goals, starting at Yongin on Saturday October 31, 14:00.

Next edition after Round 30.

Update, October 18: from this week Chasing K1 runs on the model described in The Run-In Predictor. On the same results it puts Seoul at 23 percent rather than the 26 in this letter, and Seoul at 47 percent to win at Yongin rather than 70. The figures above are left as published. Weekly No. 4 will use the new model, with this week’s number recomputed on it.