Promotion Race
The Run-In: Every Match Left for Suwon Samsung, Suwon FC and Seoul E-Land, and the Suwon FC Results to Watch
Six rounds left, five matches for Seoul. Every remaining fixture for the top three, what the model expects from each, and the Suwon FC matches that decide whether Seoul E-Land can still go up automatically.
Six rounds of K League 2 are left, Rounds 29 to 34, and Seoul E-Land play in five of them because they have the bye in Round 30. Suwon Samsung and Suwon FC play in all six. Two clubs go up automatically, and after Round 28 the race for those two places looks like this: Suwon Samsung clear at the top, Suwon FC and Seoul level on points for second, and Suwon FC ahead on the tiebreaker.
This piece goes through every remaining match for all three clubs and asks the question a Seoul supporter actually needs answered: which of Suwon FC’s results should we be watching? All probabilities come from the same 20,000-run model behind Chasing K1, rerun after the complete Round 28. They are the model’s numbers, not certainties, and they will move every week.
Where It Stands
| Club | P | Pts | GF | Left | Home | Away | Model final | Top two |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon Samsung | 26 | 56 | 43 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 69 | 98% |
| Suwon FC | 26 | 51 | 51 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 64 | 82% |
| Seoul E-Land | 27 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 61 | 18% |
Daegu, fourth on 46, finish in the top two in 2 percent of the model’s runs. In practice this is a three-club race for two places, and most of it is a two-club race for one.
The Arithmetic Seoul Cannot Escape
The first tiebreaker is goals scored, and Suwon FC lead Seoul by five. In the model’s runs where the two finish level on points, Seoul come out ahead less than 5 percent of the time. For practical purposes, Seoul need to finish above Suwon FC on points.
What that asks of Seoul’s own five matches:
| Seoul’s final total | How Seoul get there | Chance Seoul finish top two |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Five wins from five | 74% |
| 64 | Four wins and a draw | 44% |
| 63 | Four wins and a defeat | 32% |
| 62 | Three wins and two draws | 19% |
| 61 | The model’s projection | 10% |
Even the perfect finish is not enough a quarter of the time, because Suwon FC can still reach 67 or 69 without help. Below 62 it falls to one in ten or worse. Seoul’s task is to win, and win almost every time.
Seoul E-Land: The Five
| Round | Date | Opponent | Venue | First meeting | Win | Draw | Loss | Top two if Seoul win / don’t |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | Gimhae FC | Home | Won 3-1 away | 82% | 14% | 4% | 21% / 8% |
| 30 | bye | |||||||
| 31 | Sat Oct 31, 14:00 | Yongin | Away | Drew 2-2 at home | 49% | 29% | 22% | 28% / 10% |
| 32 | Sat Nov 7, 16:30 | Jeonnam Dragons | Home | Won 1-0 away | 69% | 20% | 11% | 23% / 8% |
| 33 | Sun Nov 22, 16:30 | Chungnam Asan | Home | Lost 0-3 away | 55% | 28% | 17% | 26% / 9% |
| 34 | Sun Nov 29 | Gyeongnam FC | Away | Won 1-0 at home | 36% | 37% | 27% | 31% / 11% |
No top-six opponent is left, and every one of the five is a match the model expects Seoul to win or come close to winning, with one exception: the last day at Gyeongnam, where the model has a draw slightly more likely than a win. Two of the five deserve a note. Chungnam Asan beat Seoul 3-0 in May and may still be chasing a playoff place on November 22. Yongin away on October 31 is the first match after the bye and the one the model rates closest to a coin flip outside the final day. Seoul have been better away than at home this season (8 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats on the road against 7, 2 and 4 at Mokdong), which is one small reason to think three home matches out of five is not the advantage it looks.
Suwon FC: The Six
| Round | Date | Opponent | Venue | First meeting | Suwon FC win | Draw | Loss | Seoul top two if Suwon FC win / draw / lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Sat Oct 17, 14:00 | Seongnam | Away | Drew 0-0 at home | 53% | 27% | 20% | 11% / 24% / 31% |
| 30 | Sun Oct 25, 14:00 | Chungnam Asan | Home | Won 3-1 away | 64% | 24% | 12% | 13% / 26% / 33% |
| 31 | Sun Nov 1, 14:00 | Ansan Greeners | Home | Won 3-1 away | 84% | 12% | 4% | 16% / 31% / 39% |
| 32 | Sat Nov 7, 14:00 | Gyeongnam FC | Home | Lost 2-3 away | 56% | 30% | 14% | 12% / 24% / 32% |
| 33 | Sat Nov 21, 16:30 | Gimpo FC | Away | Drew 1-1 at home | 62% | 24% | 14% | 13% / 26% / 33% |
| 34 | Sun Nov 29 | Chungbuk Cheongju | Home | Won 4-1 away | 73% | 18% | 9% | 14% / 29% / 35% |
Two things stand out. In every one of these matches, the difference for Seoul between a Suwon FC win and a Suwon FC defeat is about 20 points of probability, so there is no single fixture that decides it. And a Suwon FC defeat is worth noticeably more to Seoul than a draw, because a draw still gives Suwon FC a point.
Suwon FC are fourteen matches unbeaten and have not lost at home all season: 7 wins and 5 draws in 12. They are still without Frizzo, their 13-goal top scorer, who has missed at least their last two matches; they won both. Four of their regulars, including captain Han Chan-hee and second-top scorer Ha Jung-woo, are one caution from a one-match ban, which could matter in a tight run-in.
The four to watch
These are the matches where a Suwon FC slip is most plausible, in order of how likely the model thinks it is.
1. Seongnam v Suwon FC, Saturday October 17, 14:00 (Suwon FC fail to win 47 percent of the time). Seongnam are eleventh, but Tancheon is a hard place to win: Seongnam have lost only twice there all season and drawn 7 of their 12 home matches, including 1-1 with Seoul and 2-2 with Hwaseong in their last two. The first meeting between these sides ended 0-0. It is also the first of the six, played the day before Seoul host Gimhae. If Suwon FC win, Seoul’s chance drops to about 11 percent. If they lose, it rises to about 31.
2. Suwon FC v Gyeongnam, Saturday November 7, 14:00 (44 percent). Gyeongnam are the only side among the six to have beaten Suwon FC this season, 3-2 in Changwon in May, and away from home they rarely lose by much and rarely win: 1 win, 8 draws and 4 defeats on the road. That makes them exactly the kind of opponent that takes a point off a team that does not lose at home. It kicks off two and a half hours before Seoul host Jeonnam the same afternoon.
3. Gimpo v Suwon FC, Saturday November 21, 16:30 (38 percent). Gimpo held Suwon FC 1-1 in Suwon in April. Their home record is poor, 2 wins in 11 at Solteo, but they are a side that draws, 11 of 26 overall, and they may still be chasing a playoff place on November 21. Seoul play Chungnam Asan the next day.
4. Suwon FC v Chungnam Asan, Sunday October 25, 14:00 (36 percent). Asan are level on 35 points with Gimpo, seven behind sixth, and still chasing the playoff places. The catch is that they are poor travelers, 2 wins in 12 away from home, and Suwon FC won 3-1 at their ground in May. This is the weekend of Seoul’s bye.
The two that probably will not help
Suwon FC against Ansan on November 1 (84 percent to win) and against Chungbuk Cheongju on the final day (73 percent) are the matches the model is most confident about. Ansan are sixteenth with the worst defense in the division. Cheongju have won their last three, which is worth remembering for November 29, but Suwon FC beat them 4-1 in the first meeting.
How many slips Seoul need
| Suwon FC matches not won (of six) | How often | Seoul’s chance of the top two |
|---|---|---|
| None | 7% | 3% |
| One | 25% | 3% |
| Two | 34% | 10% |
| Three | 24% | 32% |
| Four | 9% | 62% |
| Five or more | 2% | 82% |
This is the clearest way to see it. One Suwon FC slip barely moves anything, and two is not enough most of the time. Seoul need Suwon FC to fail to win at least three of their six, which the model thinks happens about a third of the time, and then they need to have won almost all of their own. Draws and defeats count the same in that table, but not in the standings: in points terms, two Suwon FC defeats are worth exactly as much to Seoul as three draws.
Suwon Samsung: The Six
| Round | Date | Opponent | Venue | First meeting | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Sun Oct 18, 14:00 | Hwaseong FC | Home | Won 2-1 away | 59% | 27% | 13% |
| 30 | Sun Oct 25, 14:00 | Seongnam | Away | Won 1-0 at home | 60% | 27% | 13% |
| 31 | Sat Oct 31, 16:30 | Daegu FC | Away | Drew 0-0 at home | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| 32 | Sun Nov 8, 14:00 | Yongin | Home | Won 1-0 away | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| 33 | Sat Nov 21, 14:00 | Gyeongnam FC | Home | Won 1-0 away | 60% | 29% | 11% |
| 34 | Sun Nov 29 | Jeonnam Dragons | Away | Won 2-0 at home | 66% | 22% | 11% |
Suwon Samsung are five clear of Seoul with a game in hand, on five straight wins, and they have won 9 of their 13 away matches. The model gives them the title 83 percent of the time and the top two 98 percent of the time.
For Seoul’s purposes, their results barely matter. Whether Suwon Samsung win or not changes Seoul’s top-two chance by only two or three points in any of the six. Seoul catching them for first place happens in under 2 percent of the model’s runs; even if Seoul win all five, it is 15 percent. The one fixture that could still shake the top of the table is Daegu v Suwon Samsung on October 31, Daegu’s last chance to make the title race interesting.
The Calendar, Weekend by Weekend
| Weekend | Suwon Samsung | Suwon FC | Seoul E-Land | Who plays first |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17-18 | Hwaseong (H) Sun 14:00 | at Seongnam Sat 14:00 | Gimhae (H) Sun 14:00 | Suwon FC, a day earlier |
| Oct 24-25 | at Seongnam Sun 14:00 | Chungnam Asan (H) Sun 14:00 | bye | |
| Oct 31-Nov 1 | at Daegu Sat 16:30 | Ansan (H) Sun 14:00 | at Yongin Sat 14:00 | Seoul, a day earlier |
| Nov 7-8 | Yongin (H) Sun 14:00 | Gyeongnam (H) Sat 14:00 | Jeonnam (H) Sat 16:30 | Suwon FC, same afternoon |
| Nov 21-22 | Gyeongnam (H) Sat 14:00 | at Gimpo Sat 16:30 | Chungnam Asan (H) Sun 16:30 | Suwon FC, a day earlier |
| Nov 29 | at Jeonnam | Cheongju (H) | at Gyeongnam | Final day; kickoff times not yet set |
On three of Seoul’s five weekends, the Suwon FC result will already be known when Seoul kick off. The exceptions are the weekend after the bye, when Seoul go first at Yongin, and the final day, when kickoff times are still to be set.
The Shared Opponents
Three clubs will have a say in more than one of these races. Gyeongnam play Suwon FC on November 7, Suwon Samsung on November 21 and Seoul on the final day, and they have already beaten Suwon FC once. Chungnam Asan play Suwon FC on October 25 and Seoul on November 22, and they beat Seoul 3-0 in May. Seongnam host both Suwon clubs on consecutive weekends in October. If Seoul’s season ends in the top two, at least one of those three will probably have helped.
Bottom Line
Seoul cannot do this on their own anymore. They need to win almost every remaining match, ideally by more than one goal, and they need Suwon FC to drop points at least three times in six. The model gives that combination roughly one chance in five. The weekends to circle are October 17 at Tancheon and November 7 when Gyeongnam come to Suwon, the two Suwon FC matches the model rates closest to even. If Suwon FC win both, which happens in about 30 percent of the model’s runs, Seoul’s chance falls to 7 percent and their season is almost certainly heading for the playoffs. If Suwon FC drop points in both, about one run in five, Seoul’s chance roughly doubles to 38 percent, and it is a race again.